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Ladies and gentlemen, do you have the economic data of major economies in 2015

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I. current situation of economic growth since the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Russian economy has roughly experienced two stages of sharp decline and stable recovery, namely, seven consecutive years of economic recession from 1991 to 1998 and eight consecutive years of restorative growth since 1999. With an average annual growth rate of 6.4%, Russia has become one of the fastest growing countries in the world. Since 2000, the outstanding performance of Russia’s economy has not only had a significant impact on its domestic political and economic situation and foreign policy, but also attracted the high attention of some important international economic organizations. In October 2003, the research report released by Goldman Sachs in the United States called Brazil, Russia, India and China four emerging “economic giants” and combined them into a new word in the world economy – “BRICs”. In April 2007, the International Monetary Fund released the world economic outlook report, which predicted that the world economic growth rate in 2007 would be 4.9%; In July 2007, the International Monetary Fund updated this forecast and raised the world economic growth rate to 5.2%, mainly due to the rapid economic growth of emerging market countries and developing countries, including optimistic estimates of the Russian economy. Therefore, many international experts and international organizations assert that “Russia’s re emergence” is inevitable. It will surpass Germany and become the largest economy in Europe in 2028, and will have a significant impact on the formation of a new world pattern. Therefore, it is necessary for us to sort out the current situation of Russia’s economy, which has been growing for eight years. (I) the economic aggregate index has continued to improve and ranks among the top ten economic powers in the world. Generally speaking, economic growth is the most obvious factor causing the change of comprehensive national strength. The most direct manifestation and main reason for the decline of Russia’s comprehensive national strength after the disintegration of the Soviet Union is the “avalanche” decline of its economy. In the 1990s, Russia paid a heavy price for its radical economic transition. During this period, “Russia’s GDP fell by almost 50%… This is probably the first time in nearly two or three hundred years that Russia has really become a second rate country or a third rate country in the world”… By 1999, Russia’s economic strength was “only one tenth of that of the United States and one fifth of that of China”. Since 2000, under the influence of various factors, the Russian economy has shown sustained and rapid restorative growth, the overall economic situation has improved significantly, and has basically entered a stable stage of development. From 2000 to 2007, Russia’s GDP grew by 70%, industry by 75% and investment by 125%. In 2006, Russia’s GDP growth exceeded the trillion dollar mark, with an increase of 6.7%. The total economic volume exceeded the level before the disintegration of the Soviet Union for the first time. Russia’s economic growth rate in 2007 will once again surprise economists: different from the forecast at the beginning of 2007 (6.6%), Russia’s GDP growth rate will reach 8.1%, the total economic volume will reach US $1.35 trillion, and the per capita GDP will reach US $9500 [3], becoming the seventh largest economy in the world. At the same time, Russia’s GDP in 2007 was equivalent to the level of 1990. This means that Russia has ended the economic crisis in the period of social transformation that began in the early 1990s. Since 2007, the main factor driving Russia’s rapid economic growth has been the strong demand for investment and consumption. According to the data released by the Russian National Bureau of statistics, in 2007, Russia’s fixed capital investment increased by as much as 21%, and the industrial growth rate reached 6.3%. Particularly prominent is the processing industry, whose growth rate exceeds the growth rate of GDP. In 2007, the growth rate of the processing industry was 9.3%. In comparison, the mining of mineral resources increased by only 1.9%, while the power generation decreased by 0.2%. From 2000 to 2007, the real income of Russian residents more than doubled and the number of poor people decreased by more than half. In 2000, 30% of Russia’s population was below the poverty line. At present, this index has been reduced to 14%. In these eight years, the average wage has increased from 2200 rubles to 12500 rubles, and the average pension has increased from 823 rubles to 3500 rubles, which has contributed to the expansion of the demand of Russian residents who have the ability to pay [4]. (II) the financial situation has improved significantly and the ability to resist risks has been strengthened. In recent years, the establishment of the budget stabilization fund of the Russian Federation and the increase of gold foreign exchange reserves are important prerequisites for the significant improvement of Russia’s financial situation. Russian law clearly stipulates that the stabilization fund is a part of the budget funds of the Russian Federation, which is mainly formed by the Commission of excess tax revenue formed by the oil price exceeding the benchmark price, which is calculated and managed separately. The task of the stabilization fund is to “ensure the stability of the national budget when the crude oil price is lower than the benchmark price [5], promote the steady development of the economy and avoid the adverse effects caused by crude oil price fluctuations” [6]. The stabilization fund was established on January 1, 2004, with an initial size of 106 billion rubles on February 1, 2004. At that time, the Russian government expected the stability fund to reach 80 billion to 100 billion rubles in 2004. However, since the rising trend of international oil prices in 2004 greatly exceeded people’s expectations, the scale of the stabilization fund also expanded rapidly, reaching 500 billion rubles a year later. By the end of January 2008, the size of Russia’s stability fund had reached 3.85 trillion rubles. On February 1, the Russian stability fund was divided into reserve fund (airbag in case of world financial turmoil) and national welfare fund (its income will be used for pension reform). At the same time, in recent years, with the continuous rise of prices in the international energy market, Russia’s large foreign trade surplus formed by relying on a large number of exports of energy products such as oil and natural gas has played a vital role in stabilizing Russia’s domestic economy and filling the empty Treasury. According to the data released by the Central Bank of Russia, as of April 1, 2008, Russia’s gold foreign exchange reserves had reached US $502.1 billion, ranking third in the world, second only to China and Japan. In 2007, under the comprehensive influence of various international and domestic factors, Russia’s inflation rate was higher than the government’s forecast of 8% at the beginning of the year, reaching 11.9%. Although Russia’s persistent inflation has not been completely cured, the trend of relatively stable prices and sufficient gold foreign exchange reserves have created a good economic environment for the free convertibility of the ruble. The Russian government believes that such foreign exchange reserve strength is more than enough to ensure the free convertibility of the ruble, which can be said to provide a strong financial guarantee for possible currency speculation, sudden trade payment impact and short-term imbalance of balance of payments [7]. From July 1, 2006, Russia lifted the last restriction in the monetary field, thus realizing the strategic task of freely convertible ruble. (III) the rapid growth of foreign trade, the significant increase in attracting foreign investment and the rich natural resources have provided a solid foundation for the revitalization of Russia’s economy that cannot be matched by other countries. Russia’s proven resource reserves account for about 21%
of the world’s total, ranking first in the world. It is the only country in the world that can almost completely support itself in natural resources. Russia’s proven resource reserves are worth about $30 trillion, the United States $10 trillion, China $5 trillion and Western Europe only $2.5 trillion [8]. Under the background of the further development of economic globalization (especially production globalization), in the new round of global industrial structure adjustment and industrial layout reorganization, the role of energy is being repositioned, and the resource industry upstream of the international industrial chain is having a stronger and stronger voice. Therefore, the export of resource industries, especially resource products, has had a very important impact on the recovery and development of Russia’s economy and its position and role in the world economy. In particular, the devaluation of the ruble caused by the Russian financial crisis in 1998 and the rise in the prices of primary products such as crude oil in the international market since 2000 have created a good external environment for Russian product exports. Since 2000, Russia’s foreign trade has developed rapidly. The total foreign trade volume increased from 105 billion US dollars in 2000 to 552.2 billion US dollars in 2007, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%. Among them, the export was 352.4 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 17%; Imports amounted to US $19.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%; The surplus decreased from US $163.4 billion in 2006 to US $152.8 billion, a decrease of US $10.6 billion, which means that the annual net export decreased by 6.5% year-on-year. According to the data released by Russian customs, among Russia’s exports of 352.4 billion US dollars in 2007, the export revenue of oil and natural gas was 220 billion US dollars, accounting for 62.4% of the total export [9]. In recent years, soaring oil prices in the international market and European countries’ greater dependence on Russian natural gas have greatly increased Russia’s oil and gas export revenue, thus promoting Russia’s economic growth. The obvious improvement of Russia’s economic situation has also won wide international recognition. In 2002, the United States and the European Union officially recognized Russia’s status as a market economy country respectively; In 2003, Moody’s, an international credit rating agency, raised Russia’s sovereign credit rating by two levels at a time, from Ba2 suitable for investment to baa3 suitable for investment; The investment confidence survey conducted by the authoritative A.T. Kearney consulting company in the United States shows that Russia’s position in the world investment attraction ranking has risen from 17th in 2002 to 7th in 2007, and has entered the list of the world’s top 10 most popular investment places. Western business circles not only began to talk about the “Russian economic phenomenon”, but also began to enter Russia, an emerging hot spot for investment. Coca Cola, KFC and Samsung have expanded their investment in Russia. According to the data released by the Russian Federal Bureau of statistics, compared with 2006, the net capital inflow in 2007 doubled to US $82.3 billion, of which foreign direct investment was US $47.1 billion, accounting for 3.3% of GDP [10]. The countries that invest in Russia are mainly Britain, the Netherlands, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Switzerland, France, Germany, Ireland and the United States. The investment of these countries accounts for 86.3% of the cumulative foreign investment in Russia and 85.1% of the cumulative foreign direct investment in Russia [11]. When taking stock of Russia’s economic performance, we can not ignore that in the face of the difficult situation of the country after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the challenges of the post Cold War era, Russia had to speed up its integration into globalization, especially by joining the group of seven (G7), making the “G7” develop into “G8”, and became a full member of the “G8” in 1998. It can be said that the “G8” has witnessed the major changes in the world since the 1970s, and its topics have been changing with the changes of the international situation, extending from economic issues to political, security issues and even global issues. Due to its leadership and coordination role in the above-mentioned fields, the “group of eight” has gradually been praised as the emerging center of global governance. In July 2006, Russia held the G8 summit for the first time as the presidency. The themes of the summit, such as energy security, prevention and control of infectious diseases and development of education, not only have global significance, but also reflect Russia’s comprehensive national strength and characteristics. Now, Russia has demonstrated its independence within the G8 and its role is increasing. II. Hidden worries in economic growth Russia’s economic transition has established its own direction of marketization and globalization. Objectively speaking, it has selected the economic mechanism and international environment for effective allocation of resources, which provides an institutional basis for its future economic development. The economic “avalanche” landslide in the 1990s seriously damaged the stock foundation of its sustainable economic development and missed the opportunity of development. Since 1999, the restorative growth of Russia’s economy finally made the country get rid of the crisis and embark on the road of re emergence. However, today’s Russian economy is no longer a closed economy. Under the rapid economic growth and open economic environment, there are still a series of “hidden worries in growth” in the Russian economy. (I) the quality of economic growth is not high and the industrial structure is rising

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Ladies and gentlemen, do you have the economic data of major economies in 2015

by admin
0 comment

I. current situation of economic growth since the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Russian economy has roughly experienced two stages of sharp decline and stable recovery, namely, seven consecutive years of economic recession from 1991 to 1998 and eight consecutive years of restorative growth since 1999. With an average annual growth rate of 6.4%, Russia has become one of the fastest growing countries in the world. Since 2000, the outstanding performance of Russia’s economy has not only had a significant impact on its domestic political and economic situation and foreign policy, but also attracted the high attention of some important international economic organizations. In October 2003, the research report released by Goldman Sachs in the United States called Brazil, Russia, India and China four emerging “economic giants” and combined them into a new word in the world economy – “BRICs”. In April 2007, the International Monetary Fund released the world economic outlook report, which predicted that the world economic growth rate in 2007 would be 4.9%; In July 2007, the International Monetary Fund updated this forecast and raised the world economic growth rate to 5.2%, mainly due to the rapid economic growth of emerging market countries and developing countries, including optimistic estimates of the Russian economy. Therefore, many international experts and international organizations assert that “Russia’s re emergence” is inevitable. It will surpass Germany and become the largest economy in Europe in 2028, and will have a significant impact on the formation of a new world pattern. Therefore, it is necessary for us to sort out the current situation of Russia’s economy, which has been growing for eight years. (I) the economic aggregate index has continued to improve and ranks among the top ten economic powers in the world. Generally speaking, economic growth is the most obvious factor causing the change of comprehensive national strength. The most direct manifestation and main reason for the decline of Russia’s comprehensive national strength after the disintegration of the Soviet Union is the “avalanche” decline of its economy. In the 1990s, Russia paid a heavy price for its radical economic transition. During this period, “Russia’s GDP fell by almost 50%… This is probably the first time in nearly two or three hundred years that Russia has really become a second rate country or a third rate country in the world”… By 1999, Russia’s economic strength was “only one tenth of that of the United States and one fifth of that of China”. Since 2000, under the influence of various factors, the Russian economy has shown sustained and rapid restorative growth, the overall economic situation has improved significantly, and has basically entered a stable stage of development. From 2000 to 2007, Russia’s GDP grew by 70%, industry by 75% and investment by 125%. In 2006, Russia’s GDP growth exceeded the trillion dollar mark, with an increase of 6.7%. The total economic volume exceeded the level before the disintegration of the Soviet Union for the first time. Russia’s economic growth rate in 2007 will once again surprise economists: different from the forecast at the beginning of 2007 (6.6%), Russia’s GDP growth rate will reach 8.1%, the total economic volume will reach US $1.35 trillion, and the per capita GDP will reach US $9500 [3], becoming the seventh largest economy in the world. At the same time, Russia’s GDP in 2007 was equivalent to the level of 1990. This means that Russia has ended the economic crisis in the period of social transformation that began in the early 1990s. Since 2007, the main factor driving Russia’s rapid economic growth has been the strong demand for investment and consumption. According to the data released by the Russian National Bureau of statistics, in 2007, Russia’s fixed capital investment increased by as much as 21%, and the industrial growth rate reached 6.3%. Particularly prominent is the processing industry, whose growth rate exceeds the growth rate of GDP. In 2007, the growth rate of the processing industry was 9.3%. In comparison, the mining of mineral resources increased by only 1.9%, while the power generation decreased by 0.2%. From 2000 to 2007, the real income of Russian residents more than doubled and the number of poor people decreased by more than half. In 2000, 30% of Russia’s population was below the poverty line. At present, this index has been reduced to 14%. In these eight years, the average wage has increased from 2200 rubles to 12500 rubles, and the average pension has increased from 823 rubles to 3500 rubles, which has contributed to the expansion of the demand of Russian residents who have the ability to pay [4]. (II) the financial situation has improved significantly and the ability to resist risks has been strengthened. In recent years, the establishment of the budget stabilization fund of the Russian Federation and the increase of gold foreign exchange reserves are important prerequisites for the significant improvement of Russia’s financial situation. Russian law clearly stipulates that the stabilization fund is a part of the budget funds of the Russian Federation, which is mainly formed by the Commission of excess tax revenue formed by the oil price exceeding the benchmark price, which is calculated and managed separately. The task of the stabilization fund is to “ensure the stability of the national budget when the crude oil price is lower than the benchmark price [5], promote the steady development of the economy and avoid the adverse effects caused by crude oil price fluctuations” [6]. The stabilization fund was established on January 1, 2004, with an initial size of 106 billion rubles on February 1, 2004. At that time, the Russian government expected the stability fund to reach 80 billion to 100 billion rubles in 2004. However, since the rising trend of international oil prices in 2004 greatly exceeded people’s expectations, the scale of the stabilization fund also expanded rapidly, reaching 500 billion rubles a year later. By the end of January 2008, the size of Russia’s stability fund had reached 3.85 trillion rubles. On February 1, the Russian stability fund was divided into reserve fund (airbag in case of world financial turmoil) and national welfare fund (its income will be used for pension reform). At the same time, in recent years, with the continuous rise of prices in the international energy market, Russia’s large foreign trade surplus formed by relying on a large number of exports of energy products such as oil and natural gas has played a vital role in stabilizing Russia’s domestic economy and filling the empty Treasury. According to the data released by the Central Bank of Russia, as of April 1, 2008, Russia’s gold foreign exchange reserves had reached US $502.1 billion, ranking third in the world, second only to China and Japan. In 2007, under the comprehensive influence of various international and domestic factors, Russia’s inflation rate was higher than the government’s forecast of 8% at the beginning of the year, reaching 11.9%. Although Russia’s persistent inflation has not been completely cured, the trend of relatively stable prices and sufficient gold foreign exchange reserves have created a good economic environment for the free convertibility of the ruble. The Russian government believes that such foreign exchange reserve strength is more than enough to ensure the free convertibility of the ruble, which can be said to provide a strong financial guarantee for possible currency speculation, sudden trade payment impact and short-term imbalance of balance of payments [7]. From July 1, 2006, Russia lifted the last restriction in the monetary field, thus realizing the strategic task of freely convertible ruble. (III) the rapid growth of foreign trade, the significant increase in attracting foreign investment and the rich natural resources have provided a solid foundation for the revitalization of Russia’s economy that cannot be matched by other countries. Russia’s proven resource reserves account for about 21%
of the world’s total, ranking first in the world. It is the only country in the world that can almost completely support itself in natural resources. Russia’s proven resource reserves are worth about $30 trillion, the United States $10 trillion, China $5 trillion and Western Europe only $2.5 trillion [8]. Under the background of the further development of economic globalization (especially production globalization), in the new round of global industrial structure adjustment and industrial layout reorganization, the role of energy is being repositioned, and the resource industry upstream of the international industrial chain is having a stronger and stronger voice. Therefore, the export of resource industries, especially resource products, has had a very important impact on the recovery and development of Russia’s economy and its position and role in the world economy. In particular, the devaluation of the ruble caused by the Russian financial crisis in 1998 and the rise in the prices of primary products such as crude oil in the international market since 2000 have created a good external environment for Russian product exports. Since 2000, Russia’s foreign trade has developed rapidly. The total foreign trade volume increased from 105 billion US dollars in 2000 to 552.2 billion US dollars in 2007, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%. Among them, the export was 352.4 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 17%; Imports amounted to US $19.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%; The surplus decreased from US $163.4 billion in 2006 to US $152.8 billion, a decrease of US $10.6 billion, which means that the annual net export decreased by 6.5% year-on-year. According to the data released by Russian customs, among Russia’s exports of 352.4 billion US dollars in 2007, the export revenue of oil and natural gas was 220 billion US dollars, accounting for 62.4% of the total export [9]. In recent years, soaring oil prices in the international market and European countries’ greater dependence on Russian natural gas have greatly increased Russia’s oil and gas export revenue, thus promoting Russia’s economic growth. The obvious improvement of Russia’s economic situation has also won wide international recognition. In 2002, the United States and the European Union officially recognized Russia’s status as a market economy country respectively; In 2003, Moody’s, an international credit rating agency, raised Russia’s sovereign credit rating by two levels at a time, from Ba2 suitable for investment to baa3 suitable for investment; The investment confidence survey conducted by the authoritative A.T. Kearney consulting company in the United States shows that Russia’s position in the world investment attraction ranking has risen from 17th in 2002 to 7th in 2007, and has entered the list of the world’s top 10 most popular investment places. Western business circles not only began to talk about the “Russian economic phenomenon”, but also began to enter Russia, an emerging hot spot for investment. Coca Cola, KFC and Samsung have expanded their investment in Russia. According to the data released by the Russian Federal Bureau of statistics, compared with 2006, the net capital inflow in 2007 doubled to US $82.3 billion, of which foreign direct investment was US $47.1 billion, accounting for 3.3% of GDP [10]. The countries that invest in Russia are mainly Britain, the Netherlands, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Switzerland, France, Germany, Ireland and the United States. The investment of these countries accounts for 86.3% of the cumulative foreign investment in Russia and 85.1% of the cumulative foreign direct investment in Russia [11]. When taking stock of Russia’s economic performance, we can not ignore that in the face of the difficult situation of the country after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the challenges of the post Cold War era, Russia had to speed up its integration into globalization, especially by joining the group of seven (G7), making the “G7” develop into “G8”, and became a full member of the “G8” in 1998. It can be said that the “G8” has witnessed the major changes in the world since the 1970s, and its topics have been changing with the changes of the international situation, extending from economic issues to political, security issues and even global issues. Due to its leadership and coordination role in the above-mentioned fields, the “group of eight” has gradually been praised as the emerging center of global governance. In July 2006, Russia held the G8 summit for the first time as the presidency. The themes of the summit, such as energy security, prevention and control of infectious diseases and development of education, not only have global significance, but also reflect Russia’s comprehensive national strength and characteristics. Now, Russia has demonstrated its independence within the G8 and its role is increasing. II. Hidden worries in economic growth Russia’s economic transition has established its own direction of marketization and globalization. Objectively speaking, it has selected the economic mechanism and international environment for effective allocation of resources, which provides an institutional basis for its future economic development. The economic “avalanche” landslide in the 1990s seriously damaged the stock foundation of its sustainable economic development and missed the opportunity of development. Since 1999, the restorative growth of Russia’s economy finally made the country get rid of the crisis and embark on the road of re emergence. However, today’s Russian economy is no longer a closed economy. Under the rapid economic growth and open economic environment, there are still a series of “hidden worries in growth” in the Russian economy. (I) the quality of economic growth is not high and the industrial structure is rising

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